The Quebec real estate market in 2023 and its outlook for 2024
In recent years, particularly disrupted by the pandemic, the real estate market has undergone several twists and turns. After several increases in interest rates and characterized by high-priced properties, the year 2023 was marked by market resilience.
Here is a recap of the real estate market in Quebec in 2023 and forecasts of what the year 2024 has in store for us.
Key takeaways
- The resale real estate market was resilient in 2023 with activity close to the historical average.
- The number of residential sales saw a decline of 13% while the median price of single-family homes remained stable ($415,200 in 2022 and $413,200 in 2023).
- Most markets note an increase in median prices with the exception of the Montreal and Gatineau CMAs (down 2%), where prices are the highest.
- The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) anticipates a stabilization of the real estate market in 2024 and more balanced conditions.
Highlights of the real estate market in 2023
During its Fenêtre sur le marché immobilier conference, the QPAREB presented its review of the real estate market for the year 2023.
After 2020 and 2021 when recorded activities reached peaks, the real estate market in 2022 and 2023 cooled and was characterized by post-pandemic normalization.
A resilient resale real estate market
Despite the rapid rise in interest rates, the resale real estate market in Quebec was very resilient in 2023.
- Median prices are comparable to those of 2022, despite low transactional activity.
- With 76,000 sales estimated according to the Centris database, activity in 2023 is close to the historical average of recent years.
Experienced buyers benefited from a calmer negotiation environment, with a marked reduction in overbidding, especially in markets that were most impacted by the pandemic. At the same time, first-time buyers have found more affordable properties suited to their budget in various regions of Quebec.
According to the QPAREB review, this trend is also linked to the exceptional catch-up of international migratory flows. This dynamic, combined with a strong job market and the ability to spread out mortgage payments over the longer term, has prevented a massive return of properties to the market.
Regional markets in the province still favourable to sellers
There is still a persistent imbalance in regions where the median price is lower than that of the province. Property prices in these more affordable markets have seen significant growth until reaching a new peak in 2023.
These regions contrast with those where prices are higher and where there is a decline in prices.
Prices increase in most metropolitan areas of the province
With the exception of the Montreal and Gatineau CMAs, the province's CMAs recorded a higher price increase than the province, erasing the 2022 price correction. The Montreal and Gatineau CMAs, the markets where property prices are the highest, noted a 2% drop for the median price of single-family homes.
| Median Price (single-family) | ||||
| Metropolitain Areas | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Gatineau | $312,000 | $400,000 | $450,000 | $440,000 |
| Montreal | $400,000 | $495,000 | $550,000 | $541,000 |
| Quebec | $270,000 | $310,000 | $340,500 | $350,000 |
| Saguenay | $187,500 | $213,250 | $242,000 | $260,000 |
| Sherbrooke | $243,750 | $305,000 | $351,000 | $377,943 |
| Trois-Rivières | $175,500 | $220,000 | $287,500 | $300,000 |
| Province of Québec | $295,000 | $365,000 | $415,000 | $416,500 |
Source: QPAREB
What does the real estate market in Quebec have in store for 2024?
The QPAREB also presents its predictions for the real estate market in 2024 in its review. Broadly speaking, the resale market should stabilize and note activity comparable to that of 2023.
First year of stabilization of the resale market
The QPAREB estimates that the residential real estate market will stabilize in 2024, with activity similar to that of the previous year, marked by a slight drop in sales, estimated at 2%. With a property inventory rate below the historical average and more balanced market conditions, median prices for single-family homes should remain relatively stable in the province.
- With the economy slowing further, interest rates are expected to decrease in 2024.
- The contraction in the job market combined with still high prices will contribute to a slowdown in sales at the start of 2024.
- An increase in new listings is expected, resulting in more balanced market conditions.
According to Charles Brant, QPAREB Market Analysis Director, “This period will be conducive to more numerous and negotiable purchasing opportunities which will benefit buyers. This situation will be short-lived, as transactional activity should be very reactive to the first announcements of rate cuts, leading to a more decisive market upturn later in the year. This rally will be supported by high migratory flows and the prospects of an economic recovery led by significant structural investments.”
| Province of Québec | ||
| Total Residential Sales | Median Price (single-family) | |
| 2020 | 112,157 (+16%) | $295,000 (+13%) |
| 2021 | 109,464 (-2%) | $365,000 (+24%) |
| 2022 | 87,081 (-20%) | $415,000 (+14%) |
| 2023e | 76,036 (-13%) | $413,200 (0%) |
| 2024p | 74,719 (-2%) | $411,300 (0%) |
Source: QPAREB
Contrasts still perceptible in the markets in the Montreal and Quebec CMAs
The markets of the Montreal and Quebec CMAs evolved differently during the pandemic years. The QPAREB still anticipates a contrast in the two metropolitan markets for 2024.
In the Quebec CMA:
- Slowdown in sales to get closer to their historical average
- Continued price growth (+5% for single-family homes, +1% for co-ownerships)
In the Montreal CMA:
- Stabilization of activity around 3,500 transactions
- Maintained median prices (+2% for single-family homes, +1% for co-ownerships)
| Montreal CMA | |||
| Total Residential Sales | Median Price (single-family) | Meidan Price (condominium) | |
| 2020 | 55 524 (+8%) | 400 000$ (+18%) | 305 000$ (+14%) |
| 2021 | 54 445 (-2%) | 495 000$ (+24%) | 360 000$ (+18%) |
| 2022 | 42 462 (-22%) | 550 000$ (+11%) | 395 000$ (+10%) |
| 2023e | 36 285 (-15%) | 539 800$ (-2%) | 390 200$ (-1%) |
| 2024p | 35 230 (-3%) | 549 400$ (+2%) | 395 600$ (+1%) |
Source: QPAREB
| Quebec CMA | |||
| Total Residential Sales | Median Price (single-family) | Median Price (condominium) | |
| 2020 | 10,766 (+28%) | $270,000 (+4%) | $192,500 (0%) |
| 2021 | 10,311 (-4%) | $310,000 (+15%) | $210,000 (+9%) |
| 2022 | 8,935 (-13%) | $340,500 (+10%) | $230,000 (+10%) |
| 2023e | 8,292 (-7%) | $349,600 (+3%) | $241,700 (+5%) |
| 2024p | 7,800 (-6%) | $368,000 (+5%) | $244,900 (+1%) |
Source: QPAREB
The year 2024 points to a more stable and predictable real estate market. It is still wise for future buyers and sellers to remain informed and attentive to the evolution of the market and interest rates in 2024. Nothing makes it possible to predict the future with accuracy and therefore the best advice always remains, without fail, to listen to your needs and act when it is most appropriate for you.
Sources
QPAREB Review : Stabilization of the Real Estate Market in 2024, Laying the Foundation for a Market Recovery Under More Balanced Conditions
QPAREB Residential Real Estate Market Barometer
